Cherry-picked Weather Scenario – 160 Fish
CLIENTS: This morning, Thursday, December 18, I hand-picked a fishing date for Mr. Sam Simon, who struggled through the two-fish trip I reported about previously (Dec. 5th) when a bad forecast led to a very, very difficult trip.
On this outing, Sam invited along an old army buddy of his, Larry Henry. Both men retired as senior non-commissioned officers from out of the Army’s Infantry Branch. This is what made their schedules flexible enough to come when the weather cooperated.
I originally planned to meet with Sam and Larry at 7:30 AM, but, as I was wrapping up my evening yesterday, saw that about two hours’ worth of fog had crept into the early morning forecast. Seeing this, I moved us back to an 8 AM start.
TODAY’S DATE: Thursday, 18 December 2025 (AM)
NEXT OPEN DATE FOR FISHING: Tuesday, 30 December 2025 (AM or PM)
PHOTO CAPTION: After seeing on Tuesday the NOAA forecast for a mild, dry cold front’s arrival scheduled for this Thursday morning, I contacted Sam Simon (right) and let him know the conditions looked excellent for a strong catch this morning. He invited his friend, Larry Henry, and it was a done deal — 160 fish in 3 hours, 20 minutes.
CAPTION: This was the weather forecast sequence which led to this above average catch. On the far left is the forecast I saw on Tuesday, letting me know a dry cold front was due in on Thursday. I scheduled the trip for 7:30A. In the middle was the updated forecast on Wednesday. I noted fog at sunrise, so, I pushed us back to 8A. The forecast on the far right was as of 5AM the day of the trip. The wind shift from S to W to NW was to be taking place between 8A and 1P. In reality, the wind shifted around 9:40 and reached peak velocity by 11:10. Fishing was excellent all morning!
FIND LURES HERE: https://whitebasstools.com/
WHERE WE FISHED: Lake Belton
SUMMARY OF HOW WE FISHED:
As I rose this morning, the incoming, mild, dry cold front had advanced, thus sweeping our concerns about fog away. As we got on the water, the wind was southerly. I had picked this day because an incoming, dry. Cold front was due to arrive in the morning hours.
We enjoyed the entire wind shift from due south through southwest through westerly through northwesterly and remained on the water until the winds peaked at around 18 mph. During this time, Sam and Larry used one technique with one lure at only two areas and caught exactly 160 fish. Both groups of fish were located in 28 to 31 feet of water. Both groups of fish responded very favorably to the thumper. Both groups of fish energetically chased the white, 3/4 oz. Bladed Hazy Eye Slab vertically up off the bottom as the men executed the “slow-smoking” tactic. The first area produced exactly 28 fish. The second area produced the balance of 132 fish.
Included in our catch was 1 short hybrid, 13 largemouth bass up to 3.125 pounds, and 136 white bass.
Our fish count hit 100 at exactly 9:59 AM. By 11:10, the now northwest winds were peaking around 18 mph and the fish began to get more difficult, insisting on hunkering down on the bottom, moving more slowly parallel to the bottom, and were much more reluctant to come up off the bottom giving chase after the men’s lures. We decided to call it a very good day right there and then with exactly 160 fish landed.
RESULTS: 32 fish, all caught and released
TUTORIAL VIDEO ON HOW “SLOW SMOKE” A BLADED HAZY EYE SLAB VERTICALLY: Click here for tutorial
OBSERVATIONS:
-We saw a drastic water temperature decrease of 3 degrees (from 60 down to 57) thanks to the hard cold front on Dec. 14, but, the temperature rebounded a degree by today.
-No birds on the water this morning despite the presence of active fish for over 3 hours. On the contrary, flocks of gulls were seen flying east, over the dam, likely headed to the Temple Landfill about 20 minutes before sunrise.
LATEST WATER TEMPERATURE PROFILE:
Temperature profile measured on Stillhouse around 7:00A on Thursday, 11 December …
0 feet 59.6F
5 feet 59.6F
10 feet 59.8F
15 feet 59.8F
20 feet 59.8F
25 feet 59.8F
30 feet 59.8F
35 feet 59.6F
40 feet 59.4F
45 feet 59.2F
50 feet 58.7F
55 feet 58.4F
60 feet 58.2F
65 feet 58.0F
Temperature profile measured on Stillhouse around 6:45A on Friday, 28 November …
0 feet 67.4F
5 feet 67.6F
10 feet 67.6F
15 feet 67.6F
20 feet 67.6F
25 feet 67.6F
30 feet 67.6F
35 feet 67.6F
40 feet 67.6F
45 feet 67.6F
50 feet 67.6F
55 feet 67.4F
60 feet 67.4F
65 feet 67.2F
WEATHER DATA:
Start Time: 7:40A
End Time: 11A
Air Temp. @ Trip’s Start: 52F
Elevation: Belton is 0.46′ low with no change in the last 24 hours. USACE is releasing 26 CFS.
Water Surface Temp: 58.6F on the surface.
Wind Speed & Direction: S11, shifting to W11, then shifting and increasing from NW12 to NNW18
Sky Condition: <10% white cloud cover while winds remained from the S, then clearing as the dry front pushed in.
Moon Phase: Waning crescent moon at 2% illumination.
GT = 9
Wx SNAPSHOT:
AREAS FISHED WITH MOST SUCCESS:
Area 2327 – 28 fish on slow-smoked slabs
Area 2328 – – 132 fish on slow-smoked slabs
Bob Maindelle
Full-time, Professional Fishing Guide and Owner of Holding the Line Guide Service
Belton Lake Fishing Guide, Stillhouse Hollow Fishing Guide
(254) 368 7411 (call or text)
Website: www.HoldingTheLineGuideService.com
E-mail: Bob@HoldingTheLineGuideService.com
Facebook: www.facebook.com/bobmaindelle